go, and self isolate!

21.03.2020

I have to write this down. Even if it is just to keep a historical record.

At the time of writing this the SARS COV-2 virus (covid19 or Coronavirus) has infected 1072 Australians and claimed 7 lives.

Source: https://www.covid19data.com.au/

This number has been doubling every 2-3 days for the last two weeks and it’s exponential trajectory towards doubling every day. By that time we are in deep shit. That time is not in 10 months but in 10 days!

With that in mind I do not understand why Australians (never mind the government) are not self isolating?? Yesterday Bondi beach welcomed over 1000 people happily frolicking on the beach, tonight on my walk through the park I passed restaurants full of people.

Why do I have an opinion on this?

Two reasons really. One is primary school maths. 1700 on Monday, 3400 on Wednesday or Thursday, 7-8000 by next weekend, and thats only the tested numbers!! The true number is a multiple of this. Primary school maths. No magic fairy will bring that down. We are 14-20 days behind Italy. Believe in maths not magic.

Second reason. I am no Virologist or epidemiologist – no, but I worked for 18 months as an advisor to the UK pandemic Influenza preparedness Programm. All we did was simulate and develop responses to such an outbreak. I remember some of the outcomes. Even though theses were only Excel models.

Oh, there is a 3rd reason. LOOK at what it is happening in Italy, France, Germany… how dense can you be and think this will go away? It won’t.

If the numbers end up as predicted we WILL RUN OUT OF MEDICAL help! Australia has 2230 ICU beds. That’s Intensive Care Units beds. 874 in NSW. Guess how quickly they are full? Not to mention the exhausted doctors and nurses and all other helpers. Why do you think they are posting photos like this? For fun??

In Italy 627 people died today.

Let’s not become a second Italy. Please stay home. Look after yourself and stay safe.